The project goal is to develop a tool in order to assist informed decision making on contingency planning and adaptive reservoir management, taking seasonal forecasts into account.
Sub-objectives within the project are:
I Predict runoff volume at specific locations
Using the index calculation in concert with the application of a water balance and soil water balance model to derive runoff volumes for at least three months or more into the future at a specific location in a waterbody.
II Adaptation of reservoir operating rules
Using index calculation in conjunction with the application of a water balance and soil water balance model to derive runoff volumes for at least three months or more into the future at a specific location in a watershed.
III Extension of Projections into the Area
Expand the approach by increasing the spatial resolution in order to identify potential water stress situations more precisely. This is useful for agriculture, for deriving irrigation needs, and for taking site-specific counter actions. As a result, adaptations to climate change can be better planned and controlled.
IV Water management, environmental, and economic impact assessment for water shortage situations
Water shortage will be analysed in terms of environmental and economic consequences.
V Develop an operational tool as a basis for contingency planning
Development of a tool in order to facilitate the process of contingency planning by incorporating seasonal forecasts. This will provide the necessary data base for a drought management task force.
VI Communication, public relations, awareness raising
Development of a web portal to present and update results in a user-friendly format.
The following work packages are planned within the project:
In particular, the subsequent contingency planning represents a relevant project component. Here, an elaboration is needed that allows a rule-based allocation of water resources. For this, a common understanding of water scarcity among all stakeholders is an important prerequisite. The following diagram provides an overview of the step-by-step approach to contingency planning.
